Friday, December 01, 2006

True Cost of Christmas

Have A True Love?
Christmas Prices Soar
12 Days Of Christmas Would Cost Several Thousand

The Eight Maids a Milking price is holding steady, but the dancers, drummers and pipers are earning more this year.
PNC Wealth Management is out with its annual tongue-in-cheek tally of the cost of the gifts in the classic holiday song, "The Twelve Days of Christmas." It finds the cost of the entire collection of gifts has gone up 3.1 percent to $18,920 this year -- if you were to buy each item on the list once.

Historically low unemployment is making it more expensive to give the gift of live entertainment this year, according to the PNC Christmas Price Index.


"The Christmas Price Index reflects trends in the broader economy," said PNC chief investment strategist Jeff Kleintop. "After years of stagnation, wages for skilled workers, including the song's dancers and musicians, have increased as the labor market has tightened. Also, a decline in the housing market has dampened demand for luxury goods, such as gold rings."


Based on the pay for the Philadelphia Dance Co., PNC found the cost of Nine Ladies Dancing was $4,759, up 4 percent over last year, compared to a raise of 3 percent for Lords-A-Leaping. The musicians, Drummers Drumming and Pipers Piping, earned 3.4 percent more compared with 2005.


By contrast, the Eight Maids-A-Milking were the only service providers who didn't get a raise. That's because they'd be paid the minimum wage of $5.15 an hour. That's $41.20 an hour for all eight. The federal minimum wage has been set at $5.15 per hour since 1997. Inflation since 1996 has steadily eroded the purchasing power of the hourly minimum, which would be worth $4.04 in 1996 dollars.
Gift prices mirrored the U.S. government’s Consumer Price Index -- a widely used measure of inflation calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Pear Tree Prices Skyrocket; Bird Prices Fly Lower

The Partridge's home saw the greatest increase of all the items in the index, as Pear Tree prices increased 44 percent from last year.
"Robust commercial construction is sparking landscapers' demand for ornamental trees, such as the species of pear used in the survey," said Kleintop. True Loves will find no increase in the cost of Partridges and most other birds this year as the cost of fuel to ship them leveled off, according to The Cincinnati Zoo and Botanical Gardens.

The exceptions were birds purchased at retail stores, the group said.
Like many of the birds, the price for Gold Rings was flat compared to last year, even though the price of the raw material—gold—rose significantly. "A slowing residential real estate market is making people feel less wealthy this year and is dulling demand for luxury items, like Gold Rings," said Kleintop.

"Investors have been buying gold as an inflation hedge and prices per ounce remain much higher than last year. This may put pressure on profit margins at retail jewelers, who have not been able to pass along the increased cost to consumers."


An Expensive Christmas


PNC Wealth Management calculated the cost of The Twelve Days gifts purchased on the Web, for those Internet-savvy loves. This year, the trends identified in the traditional index are repeated in the Internet version, with overall growth of 3.4 percent, compared to 3.1 in the traditional index.
Wages are up, with the Drummers earning almost 100 percent more when purchased on the Internet in 2006 compared with an Internet purchase in 2005. And, as with the traditional Christmas Price Index, bird prices are even or, in some cases, down a bit from 2005 levels.

In general, Internet prices are higher than their non-Internet counterparts because of shipping costs, the survey said.
As part of its annual tradition, PNC Wealth Management also tabulated the "True Cost of Christmas," which is the total cost of items gifted by a True Love who repeats all of the song’s verses.

This holiday season, very generous True Loves will pay more than ever before for all 364 items.
Buying all 364 items -- from a partridge in a pear tree to a dozen drummers drumming -- repeatedly on each day as the song suggests would set you back $75,122, up from $72,608 in 2005.

For that price, you could get a brand new, fully-loaded special edition Hummer 2 sport utility vehicle, fully-loaded Cadillac XLR two-door roadster, a cruise around the world, 5 karat diamond ring or Cartier or Piaget watch.
This 3.5 percent increase is substantially less than last year's 9.5 percent increase. Kleintop said that Christmas Price Index inflation may reflect trends that led the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes this year.

Traditional


2005 2006 % Change
2006/05
One Partridge in a Pear Tree $104.99 $144.99 38.1%
Partridge $15.00 $15.00 0.0%
Pear Tree $89.99 $129.99 44.4%
Two Turtle Doves $40.00 $40.00 0.0%
Three French Hens $45.00 $45.00 0.0%
Four Calling Birds $399.96 $479.96 20.0%
Five Gold Rings $325.00 $325.00 0.0%
Six Geese-a-Laying $300.00 $300.00 0.0%
Seven Swans-a-Swimming $4,200.00 $4,200.00 0.0%
Eight Maids-a-Milking $41.20 $41.20 0.0%
Nine Ladies Dancing $4,576.14 $4,759.19 4.0%
10 Lords-a-Leaping $4,039.08 $4,160.25 3.0%
11 Pipers Piping $2,053.20 $2,124.00 3.4%
12 Drummers Drumming $2,224.30 $2,301.00 3.4%




Total Christmas Price Index $18,348.87 $18,920.59 3.1%
True Cost of Christmas in song $72,608.02 $75,122.03 3.5%
"Core" index, excluding swans $14,148.87 $14,720.59 4.0%

Internet


2005 2006 % Change
2006/05
One Partridge in a Pear Tree $176.66 $211.66 19.8%
Partridge $76.67 $76.67 0.0%
Pear Tree $99.99 $134.99 35.0%
Two Turtle Doves $130.00 $130.00 0.0%
Three French Hens $210.00 $195.00 -7.1%
Four Calling Birds $440.00 $432.00 -1.8%
Five Gold Rings $265.00 $274.75 3.7%
Six Geese-a-Laying $660.00 $660.00 0.0%
Seven Swans-a-Swimming $7,035.00 $7,035.00 0.0%
Eight Maids-a-Milking $296.64 $310.08 4.5%
Nine Ladies Dancing $6,700.00 $6,885.00 2.8%
10 Lords-a-Leaping $10,947.00 $10,947.00 0.0%
11 Pipers Piping $1,700.00 $1,750.00 2.9%
12 Drummers Drumming $762.50 $1,500.00 96.7%




Total Christmas Price Index $29,322.80 $30,330.49 3.4%
True Cost of Christmas in song $123,846.62 $125,767.32 1.6%
"Core" index, excluding swans $22,287.80 $23,295.49 4.5%


For a historical look at PNC's Index, please visit:
http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/

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